Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe99123fc142245c50822b67fe62e80fcd58d2df27a079a9e1cbf6b69ec7bdf1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 243 | 23%56 W · 187 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 1,122$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.5 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…6b59backed Yes | 29c | 571$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.59 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 20c | 299.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 79c | 233.09$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 73c | 189.15$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 18c | 152.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7b…46d3backed Yes | 14c | 127$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…3305backed Yes | 9c | 112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 72c | 74.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 27c | 53.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 29c | 51.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 72c | 34.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…f568backed No | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 28.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-05-23?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-05-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.