UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9a0ee8c0900025b82606190420dcdfe9931ee9062c40683256cb84cdd6e7578
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee02…8132backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 40c | 773.33$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 60c | 700$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 54c | 324.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed No | 41c | 138$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Yes | 58c | 132.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked No | 48c | 99.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1711…aafcbacked No | 45c | 72.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed No | 41c | 66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee4…3337backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked No | 41c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…fb58backed Yes | 60c | 53.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…ab6fbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…1136backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb8…05b0backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4523backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Yes | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Yes | 59c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…2c00backed Yes | 55c | 27.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64e…6925backed No | 39c | 26.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…f226backed Yes | 58c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Yes | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f96…92e0backed Yes | 59c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 71c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)Ruffy won
- Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will Rafael Fiziev win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.