UFC · resolved market
Will Rafael Fiziev win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4908866f22cb6c245eebe112ce289e1c7b9fe622fbc7734d21e5736e11899079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 74c | 364.34$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Yes | 20c | 151$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…14e8backed Yes | 22c | 111.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 77c | 85.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Yes | 20c | 83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…1992backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da2…ea14backed Yes | 23c | 72.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf9…142bbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked No | 80c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…e127backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafael Fiziev win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC 325: Fiziev vs. Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)Ruffy won
- Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.