Europa Conference League · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9b7b8e3603ff289f5da5f4b074afb00d7a9bcff458658d99e5a033d00f3c350
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Over | 11c | 1,415$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.39 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 18c | 1,061$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.9 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 17c | 711$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 70c | 637.96$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.69 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 75c | 409.56$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 36c | 282.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 16c | 191.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 43c | 117.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 32c | 90.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Under | 77c | 26.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: O/U 4.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: O/U 1.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: O/U 2.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Jagiellonia Białystok: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Jagiellonia Białystok won
- Spread: Jagiellonia Białystok (-1.5)Jagiellonia Białystok won
- Spread: Jagiellonia Białystok (-2.5)Jagiellonia Białystok won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.