Other European Leagues · resolved market
Estoril Praia vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea0fd1d4f9cd1dac7d7e722b781415fba334e577da474642be3bb8f456969a7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf541…ac67backed Over | 68c | 8,751$5,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,968.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 5,799$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950.81 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 2,723$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,706.76 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 28c | 1,000$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.26 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 51c | 713.89$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.8 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…8fd8backed Over | 58c | 403.37$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 259.52$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.86 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 211.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.52 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 51c | 174.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.86 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 70c | 170$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 19c | 150.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.42 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -7.5wins | -0.29per pick | 60cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…8af6backed Under | 24c | 141.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Under | 23c | 102.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 35c | 86.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 78c | 74.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 42c | 69.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 51c | 66.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 877 | 45.2%396 W · 481 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Under | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 130 | 36.9%48 W · 82 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 38c | 61.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 60.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 53.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 62c | 45.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 36c | 37.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 59c | 35.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Over | 75c | 26.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdefb…79afbacked Over | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estoril Praia vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 1.5this page
- Estoril Praia vs. FC Famalicão: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Estoril Praia vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 2.5Under won
- Estoril Praia vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Estoril Praia (-1.5)FC Famalicão won
- Spread: FC Famalicão (-1.5)Estoril Praia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.