Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: 1win vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea2007e9349dbb7910de624d802a5b53ce27002f34e0194e684d67dc2e516cbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South America Rejectsof 1win, South America Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed 1win | 16c | 4,948$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.54 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked South America Rejects | 74c | 1,352$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.62 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed 1win | 28c | 1,000$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed South America Rejects | 80c | 872.66$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.53 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…4a1cbacked South America Rejects | 72c | 700$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 68 | 73.5%50 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked South America Rejects | 74c | 401.35$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked 1win | 18c | 339.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8832…1fc4backed 1win | 31c | 321.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed 1win | 11c | 251.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb80…4b74backed 1win | 8c | 218.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…900dbacked 1win | 5c | 213$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…7e37backed South America Rejects | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed 1win | 27c | 116.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1win | 11c | 112.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…8063backed 1win | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed South America Rejects | 74c | 102.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed South America Rejects | 74c | 101.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 11c | 100.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed 1win | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked South America Rejects | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked South America Rejects | 70c | 57.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…b90dbacked South America Rejects | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58fc…77edbacked South America Rejects | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +62%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…760dbacked South America Rejects | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…bddfbacked South America Rejects | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: 1win vs South America Rejects (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: 1win vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerSouth America Rejects won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.