Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea2c623e884ddf3877944c02516e84f9b7661754c40df38afa6df482f92f88f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FC Magdeburgof 1. FC Magdeburg, Holstein Kiel
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Holstein Kiel | 79c | 1,200$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.85 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed 1. FC Magdeburg | 20c | 1,114$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed 1. FC Magdeburg | 23c | 1,048$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.81 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked 1. FC Magdeburg | 21c | 484.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.88 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Holstein Kiel | 56c | 479.04$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked Holstein Kiel | 77c | 474.74$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.01 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Holstein Kiel | 79c | 286.04$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…070fbacked Holstein Kiel | 36c | 192.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Holstein Kiel | 79c | 63.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked 1. FC Magdeburg | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Holstein Kiel | 77c | 29.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed 1. FC Magdeburg | 69c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5)this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.