Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x057e4bb64711bfe087140d95f2186f62aaff47a87632327e86b228b9ee7547f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 2,115$1,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.4 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 1,646$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 42c | 1,524$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.68 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.98 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…769cbacked Over | 41c | 1,463$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.41 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.99 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Under | 15c | 678.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 49c | 635$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 563.37$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.12 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Under | 17c | 548.49$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 27c | 484.73$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.83 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 60c | 450.07$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.92 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 265.2$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 43c | 232.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 61c | 196.75$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.76 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Under | 63c | 157.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 37c | 134.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 43c | 77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 68.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 48c | 67.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked Under | 53c | 55.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Under | 53c | 46.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 36c | 45.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6d…fc98backed Under | 69c | 43.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…f828backed Under | 52c | 37.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 58c | 36.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 74c | 31.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6411…1223backed Under | 63c | 29.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Over | 43c | 28.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 22.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.