Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x316de8e9cd6a3f65e160ad53da9dd9e761ed986c785b052f8f54912557b5910e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 1,692$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.08 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 1,485$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Yes | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.48 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 62c | 967.74$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.74 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 53c | 742.29$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.16 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Yes | 46c | 472.85$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.76 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 55c | 317.31$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.59 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Yes | 66c | 246.77$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…7f6cbacked No | 44c | 228.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 66c | 225.47$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 34c | 204.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 34c | 171.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 37c | 131.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 124.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 31c | 117.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 63c | 70.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Yes | 61c | 48.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a7…f2b7backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…b33ebacked No | 33c | 40.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 68c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 70c | 33.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…190abacked Yes | 62c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 34c | 30.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked No | 51c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed Yes | 68c | 27.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Yes | 69c | 26.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Yes | 49c | 24.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 75c | 21.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Yes | 57c | 18.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.