Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ac9c149adc54207a51449eae39bf30a8ea49d21fe431fc0020b06c4aded6fdf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 66c | 1,488$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.35 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…6a99backed Under | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 34c | 542.2$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.46 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 520.08$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.81 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 47c | 430$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.9 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 32c | 334.48$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.55 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.85 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 260.77$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.62 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 198.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 184.88$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 153.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 61c | 116.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 35c | 92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Under | 45c | 62.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +8.1wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 65c | 55.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 61c | 55.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 45c | 44.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 42c | 34.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 2.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.