Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea30dbedc5908e523aba09a6c36585bee097aa26868252c7da6d24399ed9c028
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked No | 73c | 6,706$4,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 6,249$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.59 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 5,278$4,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.06 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 27c | 4,469$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.59 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51af…8720backed Yes | 19c | 2,957$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes | 26c | 2,300$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…7d29backed Yes | 19c | 1,607$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 1,376$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.71 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5732…703bbacked Yes | 29c | 990.41$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 30c | 962.55$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.37 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 70c | 744.21$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.26 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed No | 72c | 573.06$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.46 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 18c | 534.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 6c | 508.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9634…aae2backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Yes | 6c | 378.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 6c | 333.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08c0…6c8abacked Yes | 29c | 262.22$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 29c | 231.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 28c | 198.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 17c | 192.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 70c | 179.99$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed Yes | 7c | 179.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Yes | 28c | 134$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked No | 73c | 133.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 26c | 133$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 126 | 33.3%42 W · 84 L | -21.7wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Yes | 18c | 132.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 19c | 125.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Yes | 19c | 105.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…0546backed Yes | 19c | 103.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 71c | 90$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 71c | 89.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…0748backed Yes | 29c | 86.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 28c | 86.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 112 | 46.4%52 W · 60 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 28c | 68.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 29c | 59.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 18c | 59.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 29c | 47.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 28c | 43.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…a468backed No | 72c | 42.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 71c | 41.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…13cdbacked No | 71c | 41.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 78c | 33.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 71c | 19.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed No | 72c | 17.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 251 | 57%143 W · 108 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. AEK end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK win on 2026-04-09?No won
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.