Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Dayton Flyers vs. Virginia Cavaliers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea64c7e4ab5f8ec2e033495f504e3040fb8026144df17e7d62666df711c8a44d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virginia Cavaliersof Dayton Flyers, Virginia Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Virginia Cavaliers | 65c | 7,800$5,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.54 | 116 | 62.1%72 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Dayton Flyers | 1c | 3,704$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Dayton Flyers | 35c | 3,413$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.45 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Dayton Flyers | 3c | 2,068$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Dayton Flyers | 35c | 966.67$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.33 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Dayton Flyers | 32c | 932.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Dayton Flyers | 30c | 925$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Dayton Flyers | 5c | 865.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Virginia Cavaliers | 69c | 718$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.19 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Dayton Flyers | 36c | 627.94$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.34 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Virginia Cavaliers | 70c | 606$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.8 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Dayton Flyers | 41c | 377.62$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.94 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Dayton Flyers | 20c | 370$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Dayton Flyers | 19c | 332.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 140 | 21.4%30 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ee…5cf0backed Virginia Cavaliers | 76c | 307.58$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Dayton Flyers | 30c | 285.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Dayton Flyers | 30c | 199$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Virginia Cavaliers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Dayton Flyers | 8c | 166.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Dayton Flyers | 27c | 145.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Virginia Cavaliers | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 76c | 131.66$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Dayton Flyers | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Dayton Flyers | 27c | 69.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Dayton Flyers | 38c | 66.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed Dayton Flyers | 42c | 38.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7f…d5bdbacked Virginia Cavaliers | 72c | 32.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dayton Flyers vs. Virginia Cavaliersthis page
- Dayton Flyers vs. Virginia Cavaliers: O/U 145.5Over won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-5.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
- Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5)Virginia Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.