MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea7093ff7eb86f48f0a24ada33a5e5240c79a533d8062ae01362c6566efaa3fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,633
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,633 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 1,877$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.27 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 64c | 784.55$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.22 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 493.43$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.52 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…6788backed Over | 44c | 439.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 56c | 425.8$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 62c | 398.04$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.78 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 53c | 366.11$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 48c | 144.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 48c | 144.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Under | 62c | 107.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 107.06$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 48c | 100.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 43c | 89.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 43c | 89.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad9…caefbacked Over | 43c | 89.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +49%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 46c | 70.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Under | 50c | 58.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…acafbacked Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 50c | 38.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…30b9backed Under | 50c | 27.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 50c | 25.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay RaysChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.