TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,654 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Over56c16,480$9,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,312.4950153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under44c8,647$3,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,823.111,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under36c3,005$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,073.742,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under45c2,184$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.7312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96067250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c1,967$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.825,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Over67c1,472$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.1488053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under46c1,313$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.1730647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Under47c1,149$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.065950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf36a…25abbacked Under48c1,001$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.481338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Under45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4504146.3%19 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over65c704.7$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.574,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under45c690.96$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.941,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over59c576.01$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.599,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bca…0d11backed Over53c506.62$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.113542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over51c499.98$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.997339.7%29 W · 44 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Over57c457.91$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.91,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Under41c453.36$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.885747.4%27 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under37c393.42$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.224,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd7…eac9backed Over52c388.48$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.472962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under44c381.78$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.096,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under43c366.88$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.1548339.8%192 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over64c322.6$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3713256.1%74 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Under14c289.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.359725.8%25 W · 72 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed Under41c281.14$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.276451.6%33 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Under42c280.89$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.971338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ac4…a601backed Over52c280.15$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.475341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under44c267.18$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5647350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Under49c237.4$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3366551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under44c214.18$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2467849.3%334 W · 344 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Under44c210.29$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0236649.2%180 W · 186 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under46c210.23$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7624348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6fe…6a33backed Over52c197.98$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.038144.4%36 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under46c187.74$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9125349.4%125 W · 128 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over58c186.19$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.228350.2%142 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Under46c182.86$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6427146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under46c180.48$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4239351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under24c171.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9323248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over52c169.96$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5877050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under44c163.64$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under43c161.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.156,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Under50c155.2$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.64450%22 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over68c150.34$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.865,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Under49c138.49$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.868847.7%42 W · 46 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under41c133.4$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.251,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under49c109.12$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4732348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62db…d58ebacked Under46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502733.3%9 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xea74…cf99backed Under45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4513560%81 W · 54 L+15.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb2e…cc6bbacked Over57c99.13$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.636360.3%38 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8b9…46e4backed Under49c98.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.472352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+44.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under49c97.6$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.829254.3%50 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Over56c97.36$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8454146.8%253 W · 288 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under49c94$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5949942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec66…e58fbacked Under49c87.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6531250%156 W · 156 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under39c85.62$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.366749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over58c84.03$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2965248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over59c83.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.581,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Under49c80.46$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4347848.5%232 W · 246 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3baa…68ecbacked Under43c78.61$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae1c…3678backed Under47c67.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8526151%133 W · 128 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x754d…7c7bbacked Over75c66.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.66944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick68cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed Under45c65.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6318649.5%92 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under46c63.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0621847.7%104 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over54c57.97$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.672,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Under46c55.64$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5941051.7%212 W · 198 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under45c52.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under46c52.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9370154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under49c48.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.751,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under48c47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5655847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdba8…5d91backed Over57c45.79$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6922650.4%114 W · 112 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Over55c44.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.922450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over54c43.5$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.012,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under42c43.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1519452.6%102 W · 92 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under46c42.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2213054.6%71 W · 59 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over60c40.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.076,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Under45c40.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.110649.1%52 W · 54 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x68cc…e8c8backed Under49c39.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3932647.9%156 W · 170 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under46c38.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5367453%357 W · 317 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Over52c37.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9319248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f5a9backed Over57c34.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef92…f133backed Under45c33.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.341618.8%3 W · 13 L-5.7wins-0.36per pick54cpaid-68.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under43c33.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4334452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under43c33.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4315753.5%84 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9698…de01backed Over52c31.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.333161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef0…db6fbacked Under43c30.06$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.932524%6 W · 19 L-5.4wins-0.21per pick45cpaid-47.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbbee…30b9backed Under46c29.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.557451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Under49c27.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5789950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x015e…b068backed Over51c27.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked Under43c27.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.632653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd24b…3cb7backed Over54c26.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.291241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under42c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under42c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9494648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under42c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under42c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under42c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9418345.4%83 W · 100 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Under42c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.948045%36 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1f…acafbacked Under42c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.944047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under42c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under42c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9423851.3%122 W · 116 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under42c26.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9451555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.