MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed22b7b58b2e3c8a5f5c256d0d47fa0a90f16c1e075ef70c1209d05afff47e1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 2,697$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.13 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 2,219$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.72 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 1,995$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.09 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…8ed1backed Chicago Cubs | 65c | 1,955$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.27 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 348.7$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 224.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Chicago Cubs | 65c | 159.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 34c | 96.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 64c | 79.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 66c | 63.42$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 49.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Chicago Cubs | 71c | 37.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 34.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 31.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago Cubs | 80c | 24.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay RaysChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.