South American Leagues · resolved market
Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea74a0f97c5234bc147dc985f42c8c06bb277e0a2661e16cf08d5044a621c5b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 58c | 13,184$7,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,591.6 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 44c | 8,936$3,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,931.81 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Over | 39c | 2,010$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 41c | 1,362$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.35 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 39c | 1,117$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.54 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Over | 39c | 1,010$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 37c | 964$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.68 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 580.51$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 37c | 555.63$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.58 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 41c | 441.3$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.85 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 38c | 327.84$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 36c | 290.03$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 37c | 165.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 39c | 161.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 35c | 144.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 72c | 136.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 39c | 128.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Over | 43c | 125.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 10c | 106.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 38c | 101.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Over | 48c | 100.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 30c | 95.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 32c | 82.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 64c | 76.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Under | 61c | 69.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 35c | 63.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Over | 43c | 50.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Over | 43c | 46.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 38c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f0…5d25backed Over | 35c | 41.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 58cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…a4a4backed Under | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…74c6backed Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Over | 44c | 31.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Over | 41c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…0559backed Under | 71c | 28.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 71c | 27.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 55c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-2.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.