South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb46325cb767de35a5970294c0139be1e9ee0b7e1273b6e54d1b32d2d6ff7861e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Deportivo La Guaira FCof Club Bolívar, Deportivo La Guaira FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Club Bolívar | 61c | 10,919$6,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,611.49 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 41c | 3,699$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,184.91 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 39c | 3,496$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.62 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 37c | 3,323$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.6 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 39c | 2,170$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.45 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Club Bolívar | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…610abacked Club Bolívar | 57c | 1,783$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.55 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Club Bolívar | 58c | 1,075$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Club Bolívar | 62c | 999.88$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.92 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Club Bolívar | 61c | 800.49$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.3 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Club Bolívar | 63c | 665.66$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.29 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Club Bolívar | 63c | 663$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.69 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Club Bolívar | 63c | 663$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.69 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 37c | 260.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.83 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 38c | 253.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Club Bolívar | 60c | 244.5$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Club Bolívar | 59c | 198$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 39c | 180$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 42c | 169.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked Club Bolívar | 61c | 160.7$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 39c | 134.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.14 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Club Bolívar | 57c | 121.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…aaf4backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 44c | 118.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 41c | 117.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Club Bolívar | 63c | 96.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 39c | 86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed Club Bolívar | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 40c | 69.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Club Bolívar | 60c | 61.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Club Bolívar | 57c | 54.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Club Bolívar | 59c | 48.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…9499backed Club Bolívar | 60c | 41.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Deportivo La Guaira FC | 39c | 35.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 41c | 34.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…f386backed Club Bolívar | 30c | 33.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Deportivo La Guaira FC | 40c | 27.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5)this page
- Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Bolívar (-2.5)Deportivo La Guaira FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.