Tennis · resolved market
Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaa0d1f58a05e07e37e5f012b372e22b78aaeb7e5b04ed0b83a3a5ae14952c47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuno Borgesof Nuno Borges, Orlando Luz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $294,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Orlando Luz | 5c | 51,098$2,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,346.89 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccb…ad58backed Orlando Luz | 7c | 39,678$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,608 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Orlando Luz | 5c | 7,651$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.97 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Orlando Luz | 1c | 6,307$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Orlando Luz | 5c | 6,215$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.73 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Orlando Luz | 1c | 6,023$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Orlando Luz | 8c | 5,698$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.65 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…5ec9backed Orlando Luz | 4c | 5,000$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 440 | 18.9%83 W · 357 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Orlando Luz | 6c | 2,829$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.57 | 332 | 35.2%117 W · 215 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Orlando Luz | 8c | 2,475$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Orlando Luz | 3c | 2,285$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Orlando Luz | 5c | 2,067$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Orlando Luz | 1c | 2,028$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Orlando Luz | 6c | 2,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Orlando Luz | 6c | 1,728$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Orlando Luz | 6c | 1,605$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Orlando Luz | 6c | 1,189$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Orlando Luz | 5c | 1,188$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Orlando Luz | 6c | 1,119$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 346 | 55.2%191 W · 155 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Orlando Luz | 5c | 706.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a14…9fe4backed Orlando Luz | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35.7%146 W · 263 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Orlando Luz | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Orlando Luz | 9c | 492.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 381 | 41.2%157 W · 224 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…e6bfbacked Orlando Luz | 5c | 394.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Orlando Luz | 5c | 363.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685c…b626backed Orlando Luz | 4c | 328.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Orlando Luz | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…4a6fbacked Orlando Luz | 6c | 293.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Orlando Luz | 6c | 278.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 179 | 31.8%57 W · 122 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Orlando Luz | 6c | 270$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Orlando Luz | 4c | 268.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e8…0039backed Orlando Luz | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 97 | 15.5%15 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Orlando Luz | 6c | 176.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…ea32backed Orlando Luz | 9c | 121.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 436 | 18.3%80 W · 356 L | -21.4wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x136b…afc3backed Orlando Luz | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estoril Open: Nuno Borges vs Orlando Luzthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Borges vs LuzBorges won
- Set 2 Winner: Borges vs LuzBorges won
- Set Handicap: Borges (-1.5) vs Luz (+1.5)Borges won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.