MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeabfd37061cd380ee0643f530f74a778bdfca49ea800d8242452e1f9541c0f43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Over | 41c | 4,752$1,949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,803.95 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | +11.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Under | 59c | 4,569$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.02 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 60c | 2,253$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352.93 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 41c | 2,048$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.46 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 56c | 1,176$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.73 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 44c | 800$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Over | 47c | 533.81$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.18 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Over | 44c | 316.48$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.23 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 48c | 228.89$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Under | 58c | 202.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Over | 61c | 187.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4000…621abacked Over | 48c | 134.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Under | 55c | 115.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Over | 43c | 99.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…f1c6backed Under | 53c | 96.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Under | 51c | 95.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Under | 51c | 80.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc47…aae1backed Under | 43c | 72.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 44c | 67.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 41c | 65.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed Under | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 59c | 49.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 43c | 46.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…0d7dbacked Over | 47c | 46.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Under | 57c | 39.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Under | 58c | 27.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 107 | 62.6%67 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc098…01bebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5this page
- Reds vs. DodgersDodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.