Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments (BO3) - ESL Challenger China Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeac81a8e565c238a263a806189823dcd3e075e1b0df4b163753b43f40f0b9b0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roar Gamingof Roar Gaming, Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked Roar Gaming | 44c | 223.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.03 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 66c | 220$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…3469backed Roar Gaming | 51c | 208.97$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 215 | 51.6%111 W · 104 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Roar Gaming | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 61c | 193.94$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Roar Gaming | 36c | 179.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.19 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Roar Gaming | 22c | 125.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…7941backed Roar Gaming | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60c…f540backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 74c | 99.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 52c | 69.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Roar Gaming | 75c | 66.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 44c | 62.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…de3dbacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 72c | 61.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 115 | 34.8%40 W · 75 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Roar Gaming | 57c | 51.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2752…8ce3backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Roar Gaming | 38c | 36.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 63c | 31.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3268…0decbacked Roar Gaming | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d53…f159backed Roar Gaming | 49c | 26.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c68…570cbacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…e7b1backed Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments | 80c | 14.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments (BO3) - ESL Challenger China Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments - Game 1 WinnerYakult Brothers.Tearlaments won
- Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments - Game 2 WinnerRoar Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.