Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Preußen Münster vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xead4b9fc934a7042028e54e23c1745a7e0ceedd4f6366059e6023cf2b75ae329
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2838…fdd3backed Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,539.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,876$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.11 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 78c | 152.41$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 79c | 129.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Yes | 26c | 107$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 91.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 34c | 82.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Yes | 26c | 71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06a…cfdabacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43a…f530backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 20.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…d929backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Preußen Münster vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2025-12-21?No won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.