Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefe6237b133b386fc6ead1d439322a54e0c6ecf5a732f44022ee545546cce7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…4e3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Yes | 28c | 194$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 10c | 191.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…ecf3backed Yes | 30c | 183$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…32bcbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Yes | 28c | 169$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 14c | 131.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 71c | 122$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Yes | 29c | 122$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Yes | 28c | 115$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Yes | 28c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b1…cac1backed No | 72c | 71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Yes | 28c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed No | 71c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…7253backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed No | 71c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed No | 71c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed No | 72c | 49.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked No | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed No | 72c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…1974backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e71…8913backed No | 72c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed No | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d10…e17cbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a1…be8bbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…7ca5backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67de…1d9bbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.