Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf09fe0d08e8d88d2366925d2e39d37f51122169da9102e43de03fc227fbc4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 718.3$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 5c | 499.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 3c | 382.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 325.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 314.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 6c | 300.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 12c | 242.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 23c | 199.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 189.54$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 8c | 179.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 74c | 158.68$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 13c | 153.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes | 10c | 106.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 78c | 104.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 16c | 102.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…b55cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 15c | 83.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 30c | 67.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 66.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 55.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 49.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c8…b823backed No | 72c | 47.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 43.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 41.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 75c | 13.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or below on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.