Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Maryland Terrapins vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 138.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaf9e2ea978b25575955ecc95e4a6b4582beee490745575828b991a9270ae3ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,026 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Under | 49c | 1,813$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.74 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,637$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.8 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 49c | 1,008$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.82 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Over | 52c | 649.04$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 51c | 392.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Over | 51c | 199.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Over | 51c | 198.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 175$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 48c | 101.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 50c | 99.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Over | 50c | 64.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Over | 53c | 63.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Under | 50c | 60.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…922bbacked Over | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Under | 51c | 29.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 229 | 50.7%116 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 23.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maryland Terrapins vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 138.5this page
- Maryland Terrapins vs. Oregon DucksMaryland Terrapins won
- Spread: Oregon Ducks (-3.5)Maryland Terrapins won
- Spread: Oregon Ducks (-4.5)Maryland Terrapins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.