Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Oregon Ducks (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x866f94b4ed7235610166964b916cb8a12fcb02ed023e4f3dd671aac94d54a28a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maryland Terrapinsof Oregon Ducks, Maryland Terrapins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,944 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Maryland Terrapins | 47c | 48,953$23,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,945.06 | 177 | 42.9%76 W · 101 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…39aebacked Oregon Ducks | 53c | 48,774$25,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,850.03 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Oregon Ducks | 53c | 1,869$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.79 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maryland Terrapins | 47c | 1,555$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.14 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Maryland Terrapins | 54c | 946.61$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.44 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oregon Ducks | 51c | 643.99$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.41 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Oregon Ducks | 53c | 306.66$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.59 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Oregon Ducks | 40c | 266.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Maryland Terrapins | 49c | 232.6$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Oregon Ducks | 33c | 193.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Maryland Terrapins | 49c | 161.38$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Maryland Terrapins | 72c | 144.79$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed Maryland Terrapins | 76c | 133$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Maryland Terrapins | 47c | 107.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.04 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9683…108bbacked Oregon Ducks | 53c | 94.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Maryland Terrapins | 53c | 79.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5560…f5e5backed Oregon Ducks | 49c | 75.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Oregon Ducks | 53c | 74.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 219 | 55.3%121 W · 98 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Maryland Terrapins | 51c | 69.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed Oregon Ducks | 52c | 57.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd5…3a32backed Oregon Ducks | 53c | 54.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Maryland Terrapins | 48c | 51.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…0da9backed Maryland Terrapins | 49c | 49.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…78aabacked Oregon Ducks | 52c | 37.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Maryland Terrapins | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Oregon Ducks | 51c | 34.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Oregon Ducks | 46c | 32.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…ec4bbacked Oregon Ducks | 53c | 29.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Maryland Terrapins | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 276 | 50.7%140 W · 136 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Maryland Terrapins | 47c | 24.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Maryland Terrapins | 49c | 24.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…e95cbacked Maryland Terrapins | 49c | 23.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oregon Ducks (-3.5)this page
- Maryland Terrapins vs. Oregon DucksMaryland Terrapins won
- Maryland Terrapins vs. Oregon Ducks: O/U 138.5Under won
- Spread: Oregon Ducks (-4.5)Maryland Terrapins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.