Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb054966f44be9b51a8e86bdb987546da72e20d310c4c81420840001d9e63606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 187.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 32c | 179.87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 170.83$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 165.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 105.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 103.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 73.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 77c | 65.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 23c | 65.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 77c | 64.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 28c | 53.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 53.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 76c | 52.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 52c | 50.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 25c | 46.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 72c | 41.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 27c | 40.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…c0fabacked Yes | 27c | 40.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed No | 80c | 37.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd736…ba5dbacked Yes | 29c | 35.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 77c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 31.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 73c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 25.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 78c | 21.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 17.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 77c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.