World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb36639ae95bce764ea7f171e50357f198580ff02dce8875f7b4d492d2b2424f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 36c | 449.7$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.31 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked No | 47c | 445.74$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.69 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 171$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…8bb7backed No | 50c | 113$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 109.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 87.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 66c | 81.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 69.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 49.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x018c…010ebacked No | 54c | 46.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…2e8fbacked No | 64c | 43.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…b673backed No | 64c | 38.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed No | 52c | 37.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 64c | 35.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 34.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 58c | 34.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 49c | 27.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 50c | 23.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 68c | 22.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…5735backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on August 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on August 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on August 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.