Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb56c123c2855a3a642ba1e5ef1678e210468263c9e41df56f4df25122b6ef19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,834$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,518$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.44 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 11c | 1,007$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 16c | 613.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.03 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 426.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 5c | 413.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 387.68$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 348.68$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 10c | 208.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 206.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 8c | 194.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 6c | 168.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…8c8bbacked Yes | 13c | 160.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 12c | 154$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 148.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 30c | 126.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 113.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 108.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 14c | 108.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 76c | 85.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 84.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 20c | 83.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 17c | 81.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 16c | 79.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 73c | 75.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 64.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 79c | 63.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 23c | 61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 60.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693b…a48abacked Yes | 30c | 47.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 30c | 44.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 39.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 36.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 34c | 35.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 74c | 34.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…8d7abacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.