Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bfce82cd350a91779b5642f9113c06b32279bb61db9ce99e42aee6c5482c85f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 680.65$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 47c | 415.07$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.58 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 314.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 50c | 310.05$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 40c | 282.56$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 282.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 76c | 260$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.41 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 12c | 250.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 238.45$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 235.54$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…c0f9backed Yes | 61c | 233.63$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.51 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 56c | 230$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…db54backed Yes | 63c | 219.77$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 15c | 194.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 49c | 192.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 42c | 189.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 56c | 178.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 158.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 48c | 157.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 157.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 69c | 145.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 43c | 136.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 75c | 133.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 70c | 128.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 80c | 125.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 63c | 125.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 28c | 124.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 46c | 110.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 55c | 103.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed No | 45c | 97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…6042backed Yes | 67c | 96.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 31c | 95.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 29c | 89.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 88.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 57c | 88.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed Yes | 61c | 84.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…2912backed Yes | 69c | 83.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 64c | 83.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 26c | 82.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 54c | 79.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 19c | 77.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 28c | 77.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 57c | 75.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 67c | 74.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 38c | 74.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 73.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 42c | 73.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 54c | 71.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 75c | 66.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 30c | 66.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 22c | 65.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.78 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 47c | 61.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 51c | 60.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 22c | 59.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 47c | 55.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…6d0abacked Yes | 70c | 55.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 38c | 53.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked Yes | 65c | 52.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 52.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 66c | 52.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…254cbacked Yes | 58c | 51.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 51.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 68c | 51.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 39c | 50.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 60c | 49.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 49.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 75c | 46.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 65c | 46.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1e…9d49backed Yes | 75c | 44.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 65c | 44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 43.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 73c | 42.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 59c | 41.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 71c | 41.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 61c | 41.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 79c | 41.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 55c | 41.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 37c | 41.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 49c | 38.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 66c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 37.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…5749backed Yes | 44c | 34.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 54c | 34.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 59c | 34.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 51c | 33.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.