MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebb666c8f97ac4dac98ebee2560899bcbb0483eba95d6196c2df9b7368532e85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,761 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 2,342$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.59 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 1,972$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.56 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 901$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.46 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 801$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.34 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aaf…61a5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 799.99$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Milwaukee Brewers | 74c | 765.23$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 625.65$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 526.03$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 498.24$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 267.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Milwaukee Brewers | 72c | 211.38$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 199.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 138.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 108.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 20c | 103.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 946 | 55.3%523 W · 423 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 86.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b2…2e80backed Cincinnati Reds | 17c | 84.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 55c | 71.44$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 15c | 70.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 76c | 67.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 24c | 64.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 61.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…89cdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +2,408.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Cincinnati Reds | 19c | 56.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 54.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 52.07$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 70c | 43.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 42.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 42.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 39.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 38.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 36.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 36.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 34.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…e6c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 32.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 30.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 19.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.