Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebd5c9a1e09696a6fcd5a98cc0a414d48eda5507296874fabec73fb1108abb9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alliance Guardiansof FlyQuest, Alliance Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5501…fe9abacked Alliance Guardians | 25c | 575.91$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.91 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Alliance Guardians | 21c | 313.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.4 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…2c59backed FlyQuest | 69c | 250.17$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Alliance Guardians | 45c | 173.31$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.04 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Alliance Guardians | 54c | 172.79$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked FlyQuest | 76c | 165.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.11 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Alliance Guardians | 11c | 102$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked FlyQuest | 72c | 96.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Alliance Guardians | 26c | 84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed FlyQuest | 61c | 81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 322 | 61.5%198 W · 124 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f77…39f8backed FlyQuest | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…6a68backed Alliance Guardians | 31c | 48.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…9bcdbacked FlyQuest | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed FlyQuest | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Alliance Guardians | 42c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed FlyQuest | 50c | 34.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 418 | 35.6%149 W · 269 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed FlyQuest | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked FlyQuest | 64c | 27.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 183 | 3.3%6 W · 177 L | -73.1wins | -0.40per pick | 43cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 11-0.35 edge/pick |
| 0x0d43…43a7backed FlyQuest | 72c | 27.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 48cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked FlyQuest | 71c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd652…6354backed FlyQuest | 70c | 19.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked FlyQuest | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 204 | 39.2%80 W · 124 L | -18.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: FlyQuest vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Valorant: FlyQuest vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group StageFlyQuest won
- Valorant: FlyQuest vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 WinnerFlyQuest won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.