CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebe91569970cbf27c575b71b9dbd6e541a2ed688574e39d4e5d12bb6999a8ef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof HOTU, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0add…1aa6backed fnatic | 26c | 750.07$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…1aa1backed HOTU | 67c | 708.3$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.8 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed fnatic | 42c | 689.66$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.66 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed HOTU | 58c | 689.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.66 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed HOTU | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 392 | 45.9%180 W · 212 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked fnatic | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed HOTU | 74c | 249.13$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.85 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked fnatic | 31c | 248$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked fnatic | 31c | 179.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked HOTU | 73c | 159.16$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked HOTU | 73c | 146$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed HOTU | 75c | 128.06$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed HOTU | 70c | 77.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed fnatic | 24c | 68.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbb…92efbacked fnatic | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked fnatic | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked HOTU | 65c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked HOTU | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6a…a9f8backed HOTU | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup PlayoffsHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.