CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2518dcfb7b9fa9d1f6e91641d48d629aef97c60b781a5dc38bfba8d0d3b9bdb4

Rebuilt 1 minute ago.

Winning outcome: HOTUof HOTU, fnatic
Resolved: Feb 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $27,541
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,541 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x21ec…5348backed HOTU	62c	4,000$2,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,520	724	53.7%389 W · 335 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed fnatic	38c	3,228$1,227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,226.6	110	46.4%51 W · 59 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed HOTU	62c	3,125$1,947 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,178.59	849	58.3%495 W · 354 L	+60.4wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked fnatic	39c	2,843$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,111	471	47.3%223 W · 248 L	+10.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed fnatic	38c	2,401$916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$915.52	2,066	41.5%858 W · 1,208 L	-49.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked fnatic	40c	1,947$782 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.16	598	39.6%237 W · 361 L	-15.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked HOTU	60c	1,362$822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$539.63	1,623	44.9%728 W · 895 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed HOTU	71c	1,302$925 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$376.81	4,038	48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L	-23.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked HOTU	60c	1,000$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	86	54.7%47 W · 39 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked fnatic	41c	930.46$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.79	5,050	55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L	+117.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed fnatic	36c	922.46$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.58	854	46.4%396 W · 458 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked HOTU	61c	909.13$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.54	1,714	46.7%801 W · 913 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed HOTU	61c	900$549 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed fnatic	37c	700$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259	260	54.2%141 W · 119 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf56d…9eeabacked HOTU	57c	666$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.38	148	53.4%79 W · 69 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa097…8795backed HOTU	58c	545.64$317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.63	173	47.4%82 W · 91 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked fnatic	37c	514.82$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.99	1,573	35.3%556 W · 1,017 L	+22.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed fnatic	24c	499.61$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.75	6,480	42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L	-79.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed fnatic	41c	429.32$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.37	5,830	37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L	+79.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked fnatic	41c	418.76$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.69	193	44%85 W · 108 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked HOTU	72c	391.5$282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.33	2,214	47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed fnatic	11c	388.36$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	305	27.5%84 W · 221 L	-17.6wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed fnatic	38c	375.01$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.13	123	59.3%73 W · 50 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d1…f540backed HOTU	59c	350$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.5	178	49.4%88 W · 90 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed HOTU	70c	349.99$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.28	1,969	46.7%919 W · 1,050 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cfb…f786backed fnatic	15c	336.15$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	-10.7wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed fnatic	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	439	33.7%148 W · 291 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked fnatic	39c	307.69$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	543	48.6%264 W · 279 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked fnatic	16c	305.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	204	33.8%69 W · 135 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed HOTU	59c	303.01$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.58	872	44.8%391 W · 481 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed fnatic	42c	288$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.96	398	51.3%204 W · 194 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4328…11d2backed HOTU	59c	270.87$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.35	189	43.4%82 W · 107 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed fnatic	36c	270$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.3	328	45.1%148 W · 180 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed fnatic	41c	250$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	452	44.5%201 W · 251 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7140…47e3backed fnatic	41c	241.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	106	51.9%55 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf0b…7cccbacked fnatic	42c	240.74$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	454	50.2%228 W · 226 L	-12.8wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed HOTU	60c	238.43$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.43	367	42.8%157 W · 210 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked HOTU	60c	223.38$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.38	190	43.7%83 W · 107 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed HOTU	68c	220.91$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.91	965	45.7%441 W · 524 L	+10.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed fnatic	18c	220.37$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.42	567	32.5%184 W · 383 L	-30.0wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed HOTU	58c	200$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	328	44.5%146 W · 182 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed fnatic	37c	200$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	972	30%292 W · 680 L	-23.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked HOTU	63c	179.9$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.96	249	39.8%99 W · 150 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed HOTU	61c	164.86$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.86	676	51.8%350 W · 326 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed HOTU	67c	150$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	85	35.3%30 W · 55 L	-7.1wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f35…ed78backed fnatic	42c	150$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+6.1wins	+0.18per pick	41cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x31e6…a23ebacked HOTU	58c	150$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed HOTU	58c	142.91$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.02	209	44%92 W · 117 L	-11.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked HOTU	64c	140$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.1	355	50.1%178 W · 177 L	-8.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked HOTU	75c	125$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.8	3,225	51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L	+88.0wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked fnatic	28c	116.67$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	7,925	50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L	+179.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked HOTU	63c	110.31$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.31	187	51.3%96 W · 91 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed HOTU	75c	107.84$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.35	4,228	49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L	+59.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4627…7c23backed HOTU	57c	100$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	374	48.4%181 W · 193 L	-16.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0077…44a7backed fnatic	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc995…2224backed fnatic	38c	100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked fnatic	40c	92$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	79	35.4%28 W · 51 L	-5.9wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked HOTU	76c	85$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.39	1,040	44%458 W · 582 L	-22.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked HOTU	60c	81.05$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.42	198	45.5%90 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xced8…221ebacked HOTU	57c	80.01$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.4	700	38.9%272 W · 428 L	-29.5wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x911f…5ed0backed fnatic	43c	69.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	199	39.2%78 W · 121 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed HOTU	77c	61.29$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.33	698	63%440 W · 258 L	+65.3wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed fnatic	35c	55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	112	42%47 W · 65 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed fnatic	42c	51$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	177	58.2%103 W · 74 L	+13.7wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked fnatic	41c	49.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	246	33.3%82 W · 164 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed fnatic	39c	45.67$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.67	2,102	16.8%353 W · 1,749 L	-286.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed fnatic	36c	40$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	194	42.8%83 W · 111 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c7…37adbacked HOTU	56c	40$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.6	667	53.1%354 W · 313 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf1e…5d9bbacked HOTU	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+69.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…45d3backed fnatic	32c	31.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…8b3abacked fnatic	38c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	200	52.5%105 W · 95 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed fnatic	38c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	-5.9wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-28%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x61f6…1a20backed fnatic	39c	27.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	50	42%21 W · 29 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed HOTU	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	1,304	26.5%345 W · 959 L	-89.4wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffsthis page
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic - Map 1 WinnerHOTU won
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5)HOTU won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event