Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebfbe9f161f98ebd81c796549c59eb09d38a4bd348a3d81ea047acc6aa30ad62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri Tigersof Arkansas Razorbacks, Missouri Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 15,647$7,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,717.02 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Missouri Tigers | 50c | 12,205$6,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,073.81 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Missouri Tigers | 50c | 5,155$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,577.25 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 2,835$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.93 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Missouri Tigers | 51c | 1,944$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.38 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Missouri Tigers | 51c | 1,286$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.91 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 699.71$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.85 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed Missouri Tigers | 51c | 680.27$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdab9…cdfcbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 613.02$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Missouri Tigers | 50c | 471.46$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.73 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 309.64$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.81 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb314…aacbbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 210.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b49…1f54backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 199.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Missouri Tigers | 50c | 193.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 190.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Missouri Tigers | 51c | 150.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 47c | 125.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Missouri Tigers | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…ef6bbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 77.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 51c | 68.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 49.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 349 | 52.1%182 W · 167 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 49.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…3c57backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5de…a312backed Arkansas Razorbacks | 50c | 22.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-9.5)this page
- Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 160.5Over won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-10.5)Missouri Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.