Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 160.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a6b12eb6bddfec68b793a082f220a18d30950a42fb0cb010c03f81afafc6235
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c2b…2575backed Under | 52c | 24,890$13,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,017.28 | 609 | 49.8%303 W · 306 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 13,890$6,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,243.39 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 48c | 4,100$1,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.57 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 48c | 3,247$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.61 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 52c | 2,907$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,511.74 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Under | 52c | 2,859$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.9 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 47c | 2,069$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.8 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 47c | 2,037$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.65 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 1,983$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.08 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 48c | 1,789$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.5 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 1,077$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.23 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Over | 49c | 991.25$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.54 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 52c | 800.64$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.33 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…68d8backed Under | 52c | 793.01$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.37 | 119 | 57.1%68 W · 51 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 49c | 333.79$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.23 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 53c | 315.63$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.28 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 47c | 302.04$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.08 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 49c | 245.83$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.37 | 110 | 46.4%51 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 49c | 148.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 49c | 122.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 204 | 52.9%108 W · 96 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 47c | 117.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 51c | 97.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 49c | 92.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…733cbacked Under | 54c | 80.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 67.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 47c | 41.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…a27cbacked Over | 48c | 25.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Under | 53c | 22.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: O/U 160.5this page
- Missouri Tigers vs. Arkansas RazorbacksArkansas Razorbacks won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-10.5)Missouri Tigers won
- Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-9.5)Missouri Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.