Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec0e42f07b9a99c1bb59d4248d36962b1f50d345ebdd6ff67ac52341f788cc50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 37c | 277.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 27c | 221.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 176.64$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 136.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 111.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 37c | 108.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 66c | 97.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 93.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 90.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 78c | 83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 60c | 82.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 82.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 19c | 77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 73.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 19c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 59.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…4ea8backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 54.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 36.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 59c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f2…ac5dbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80e…fa27backed Yes | 36c | 32.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 36c | 31.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 60c | 25.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 56c | 23.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 22.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 59c | 17.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.