Tennis · resolved market
Mallorca Championships: Michelsen vs. Holt
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec0e65053b577b5f13f4563f9a0a7bacbbdd0213d4fe733b76f6d65aa156bc16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michelsenof Michelsen, Holt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Holt | 27c | 9,660$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,608.17 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Michelsen | 73c | 6,773$4,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.71 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Michelsen | 73c | 1,743$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.64 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Michelsen | 72c | 1,690$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.6 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Holt | 27c | 1,572$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.49 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Holt | 26c | 1,268$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.98 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Holt | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Michelsen | 73c | 681.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.49 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Holt | 26c | 623$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.36 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Michelsen | 73c | 564.86$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.51 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61c0…21febacked Holt | 31c | 454.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Holt | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Holt | 26c | 399.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Michelsen | 77c | 167$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Michelsen | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Michelsen | 74c | 127$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…3e7ebacked Holt | 31c | 106.77$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Holt | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Holt | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…e6a5backed Holt | 31c | 80.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…c6adbacked Michelsen | 74c | 70.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Michelsen | 77c | 65.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…4367backed Holt | 31c | 59.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Michelsen | 70c | 53.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Michelsen | 72c | 51.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Michelsen | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…50ddbacked Holt | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Michelsen | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…3965backed Michelsen | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.