Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-03-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec454aa8b1eddfe27e08ff2e8525d8eb294c93ead8ad39a906b5595efdb848c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,506 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 55c | 3,320$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.42 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 32c | 950$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 204 | 20.1%41 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…20b4backed No | 40c | 827.5$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…764ebacked No | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.16 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 58c | 323.11$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.9 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 34c | 298.43$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.75 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 68c | 276.75$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 37c | 200.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.42 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 68c | 120.74$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 68c | 113.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed No | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Yes | 35c | 94.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 32c | 82.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 28c | 67.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…3d96backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 41c | 48.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 32c | 43.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 26c | 40.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…5760backed Yes | 64c | 34.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Yes | 34c | 31.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 66c | 22.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6653…acaebacked Yes | 75c | 19.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-03-22?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-03-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.