Asian League · resolved market
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d1cadd3550e3ab0386eec5deeedbe0a6b41888d21cf915c6edbaf0bb76fb199
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,186 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 54c | 406.95$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 276.92$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 28c | 274.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 22c | 84.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 15c | 76.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked No | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d3…8a20backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 62c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…6631backed Yes | 71c | 39.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…fe7ebacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 46c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…c59fbacked No | 77c | 27.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 49c | 24.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…bfe0backed Yes | 65c | 20.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 17.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-03-22?No won
- Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-03-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.