Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec5857bd1da220f71c51f075d0c84a5ca95f7a5f8308276c988b4faebcdb6e32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof AVULUS, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf353…b287backed AVULUS | 3c | 1,592$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…53d7backed AVULUS | 7c | 1,313$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked AVULUS | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed AVULUS | 6c | 900$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed AVULUS | 6c | 800$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked AVULUS | 6c | 761.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +100%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed AVULUS | 30c | 630.03$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x871e…6566backed AVULUS | 11c | 590.34$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed L1ga Team | 74c | 479$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked AVULUS | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 56c | 354.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked AVULUS | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed L1ga Team | 77c | 245.73$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked AVULUS | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed AVULUS | 49c | 101.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed AVULUS | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b2…0ab9backed L1ga Team | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…fde3backed AVULUS | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 64c | 73.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked L1ga Team | 69c | 72.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked L1ga Team | 54c | 67.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked L1ga Team | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…b74dbacked L1ga Team | 70c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team (BO3)L1ga Team won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.