Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63c5fc2bbb7d165dd012d2ea2d550a8e4966392d018122926472a2b8b62d75e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof AVULUS, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb569…5695backed AVULUS | 46c | 3,519$1,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.09 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked L1ga Team | 53c | 1,691$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.21 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 20c | 1,478$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 1,066$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.5 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 43c | 750.47$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.53 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked L1ga Team | 52c | 648.98$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked AVULUS | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed AVULUS | 48c | 520.8$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed AVULUS | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…fde3backed AVULUS | 50c | 500$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked AVULUS | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked AVULUS | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed L1ga Team | 57c | 443.87$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.28 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked L1ga Team | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked AVULUS | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +100%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed AVULUS | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed L1ga Team | 50c | 398.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.49 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed L1ga Team | 66c | 308.59$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.59 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…3a44backed L1ga Team | 76c | 294.6$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked L1ga Team | 61c | 246.75$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed AVULUS | 41c | 219.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…0c2abacked L1ga Team | 72c | 196.08$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…e4dabacked L1ga Team | 52c | 189.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed AVULUS | 31c | 183$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 10c | 124.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…5a2fbacked L1ga Team | 68c | 113.53$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed L1ga Team | 52c | 110.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab62…cc46backed L1ga Team | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc855…0eebbacked L1ga Team | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ba…7c0fbacked AVULUS | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…6b31backed AVULUS | 37c | 99.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked AVULUS | 47c | 91.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked AVULUS | 35c | 73.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f02…8826backed L1ga Team | 80c | 69.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 42cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team | 59c | 57.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked L1ga Team | 58c | 46.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked L1ga Team | 70c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…34f7backed AVULUS | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3f…3badbacked L1ga Team | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf016…b9c8backed L1ga Team | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked L1ga Team | 79c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…7cc8backed AVULUS | 79c | 13.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.