Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccc80198cda3d1e52ce790678056d15977220e8f9ee6e0e12fed112e55f429a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof AVULUS, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb72…10debacked L1ga Team | 77c | 6,675$5,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…53d7backed AVULUS | 19c | 4,464$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…b287backed AVULUS | 5c | 3,866$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked AVULUS | 3c | 2,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed AVULUS | 3c | 2,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed AVULUS | 3c | 2,100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked AVULUS | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +100%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f02…8826backed L1ga Team | 55c | 1,537$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 42cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked AVULUS | 9c | 1,400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed AVULUS | 68c | 1,253$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.45 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked AVULUS | 6c | 1,200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked L1ga Team | 57c | 1,055$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.9 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked AVULUS | 51c | 1,035$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.1 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed AVULUS | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed AVULUS | 68c | 999.99$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.99 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked AVULUS | 3c | 750$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed L1ga Team | 49c | 695$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.45 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked L1ga Team | 39c | 549.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.5 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 26c | 389.91$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791b…029ebacked L1ga Team | 38c | 389.43$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.43 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed AVULUS | 47c | 203.84$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 43c | 119.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.71 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…8fcebacked L1ga Team | 57c | 103.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed L1ga Team | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed AVULUS | 58c | 77.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…5379backed AVULUS | 59c | 66.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…e02abacked AVULUS | 50c | 65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…d0a5backed L1ga Team | 49c | 60.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…10dcbacked L1ga Team | 55c | 29.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…2f37backed L1ga Team | 49c | 27.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +4.9wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked L1ga Team | 50c | 22.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…6b31backed AVULUS | 69c | 15.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team (BO3)L1ga Team won
- Dota 2: AVULUS vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.