Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Harvard Crimson vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec876fa10ff8276a3578d810239ee387942bb9a13a0514dec76f81489db9fadd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn State Nittany Lionsof Harvard Crimson, Penn State Nittany Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Harvard Crimson | 9c | 5,797$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.7 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 75c | 1,803$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.84 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Harvard Crimson | 10c | 1,105$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Harvard Crimson | 19c | 1,061$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.15 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Harvard Crimson | 12c | 1,010$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 73c | 941.08$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.59 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Harvard Crimson | 25c | 670$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.49 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…1332backed Harvard Crimson | 11c | 545.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Harvard Crimson | 28c | 495.74$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +76%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Harvard Crimson | 25c | 399$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Harvard Crimson | 31c | 212.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Harvard Crimson | 9c | 174.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…20a3backed Harvard Crimson | 12c | 167.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Harvard Crimson | 9c | 120.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Harvard Crimson | 24c | 113.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…1790backed Harvard Crimson | 13c | 113.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e5…fe31backed Harvard Crimson | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 95 | 4.2%4 W · 91 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -86%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd64…cbeebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Harvard Crimson | 28c | 99.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Harvard Crimson | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 73c | 71.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6e…d3edbacked Harvard Crimson | 17c | 70.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e89…cdbabacked Harvard Crimson | 18c | 56.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958f…a83cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…d549backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 78c | 14.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Harvard Crimson vs. Penn State Nittany Lionsthis page
- Harvard Crimson vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 141.5Over won
- Harvard Crimson vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 142.5Over won
- Harvard Crimson vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 143.5Over won
- Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions (-12.5)Harvard Crimson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.