Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeca65aa6a1ec49c87cb4df2be48f8c3716ac2bb467b8164126a8625a9f178f34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,125 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f4…9b28backed Yes | 0c | 8,502$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 721.18$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 605.26$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.82 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 34c | 373.73$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…ab6cbacked No | 68c | 305.13$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 29c | 300.37$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.22 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 216.71$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 189.16$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…4e7cbacked No | 71c | 151.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 47c | 141.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 115.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 65c | 111.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked Yes | 33c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 103.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 70c | 103.19$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 29c | 99.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 95.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 71c | 85.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 18c | 82.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 47c | 81.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 36c | 78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 67c | 70.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 64.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 68c | 63.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 33c | 59.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 57.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66e…a89cbacked Yes | 40c | 50.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 35c | 48.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 45.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb3…f9efbacked No | 70c | 44.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 36c | 41.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 71c | 40.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…29c9backed No | 58c | 39.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 66c | 38.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 69c | 37.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 36.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 71c | 35.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 65c | 30.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 55c | 29.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 69c | 28.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 35c | 28.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 70c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 15.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.