Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7e3af30b4e1f589107a6c7f4b8c9dcc9a7a8c218088c0b44e6d7b76813ef8d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,342 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 23c | 1,205$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.4 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 871.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 45c | 722.14$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.74 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 669.05$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.28 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.88 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 71c | 380.45$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.09 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 52c | 377.1$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.77 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 40c | 299.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 63c | 228.68$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 15c | 225.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 214.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 76c | 202.85$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed Yes | 58c | 194.27$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 179.3$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…7864backed Yes | 74c | 176.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed No | 28c | 162$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 152.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 36c | 138.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 55c | 137.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 77c | 114$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 51c | 108.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 102.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…cee3backed Yes | 78c | 92.92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 61c | 92.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 45c | 86.02$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 39c | 84.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…36b3backed Yes | 74c | 82.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 43c | 77.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 66c | 75.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 77c | 65.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 36c | 65.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.49 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 63.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…5994backed Yes | 38c | 60.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 65c | 60.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 42c | 59.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 33c | 58.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 65c | 55.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 59c | 53.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 52.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…71d9backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked Yes | 61c | 49.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 24c | 44.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 48c | 42.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 35c | 39.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 28c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e0…3913backed Yes | 76c | 36.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac04…4ee3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 18.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.