Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecab5856d2b74148e24779ceb1d55beaeff735a35a24eaf8086f38cc1dca930d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nongshim Red Forceof KT Rolster, Nongshim Red Force
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed Nongshim Red Force | 51c | 3,374$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.44 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd662…eee6backed KT Rolster | 49c | 3,080$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…8573backed KT Rolster | 45c | 2,459$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Nongshim Red Force | 54c | 1,851$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bde…ca3abacked Nongshim Red Force | 55c | 1,846$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…69c2backed KT Rolster | 46c | 1,238$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed KT Rolster | 43c | 875.52$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.72 | 769 | 53.4%411 W · 358 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Nongshim Red Force | 57c | 700$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 857 | 46.3%397 W · 460 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…b690backed Nongshim Red Force | 54c | 638.05$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.5 | 825 | 54.8%452 W · 373 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed KT Rolster | 48c | 626.84$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 808 | 32.9%266 W · 542 L | -43.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Nongshim Red Force | 52c | 588.16$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.32 | 1,156 | 49.1%568 W · 588 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed KT Rolster | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68e…8a50backed Nongshim Red Force | 58c | 172.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Nongshim Red Force | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Nongshim Red Force | 45c | 92.73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…d531backed KT Rolster | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b6…f12bbacked Nongshim Red Force | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked KT Rolster | 46c | 24.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 175 | 56.6%99 W · 76 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Nongshim Red Force | 57c | 17.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)this page
- First Blood in Game 2?Nongshim Red Force won
- Game Handicap: KT (-2.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+2.5)Nongshim Red Force won
- Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5)KT Rolster won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Over won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group StageNongshim Red Force won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 1 WinnerNongshim Red Force won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 2 WinnerNongshim Red Force won
- LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster - Game 3 WinnerKT Rolster won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.