Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecacbd07be542e859dda7fb6b8686595eab59a225f5f7f6e021ecbfd9ef19a54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,181$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 4c | 535.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 306.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…b5b2backed Yes | 20c | 301.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…8bf2backed Yes | 20c | 301.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e225backed Yes | 20c | 301.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 20c | 300.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 20c | 298.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…dc81backed Yes | 20c | 294.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 256.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 16c | 231.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 21c | 219.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 22c | 149.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 140.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 130.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 121.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 106.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 17c | 100.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…47dbbacked Yes | 15c | 100.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 20c | 97.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 17c | 95.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 19c | 94.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked Yes | 22c | 92.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 14c | 77.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed Yes | 16c | 74.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…b814backed Yes | 16c | 68.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 77c | 64.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 64.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 21c | 57.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 20c | 54.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ccbbacked Yes | 23c | 51.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 21c | 49.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 80c | 49.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…dc5dbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 33.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 22.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 79c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…3003backed No | 79c | 22.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 79c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…4d69backed No | 78c | 16.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd22d…08d6backed No | 78c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.