Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76e7346668d7351308228901ef9b32d2f9eb90159901f7347a93cafbaefc0382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,432$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 552.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 424.9$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 27c | 397.19$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 330.1$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 319.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 8c | 309.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 287.71$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 229.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.63 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 227.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 216.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 198.27$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 20c | 197.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 78c | 195.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 22c | 191.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 190.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 23c | 187.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6652…0fc2backed Yes | 31c | 179.48$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 31c | 152.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 29c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 21c | 146.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 27c | 146.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 22c | 145.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 15c | 145.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…ea98backed Yes | 35c | 143.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 68c | 143.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.42 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 31c | 140.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed Yes | 28c | 129.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 78c | 123.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…e1a8backed Yes | 33c | 121.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 24c | 119.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 33c | 119.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 26c | 108.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 102.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…6aadbacked Yes | 36c | 102.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 99.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 27c | 98.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 33c | 97.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 97.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 95.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 30c | 91.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…8169backed No | 64c | 90.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 31c | 86.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 30c | 80.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 34c | 80.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked No | 76c | 79.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 34c | 77.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 25c | 75.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 26c | 75.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 74.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 73.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 71.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 26c | 68.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes | 28c | 66.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 19c | 66.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 65.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5e…29bebacked Yes | 25c | 64.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 36c | 64.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 33c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 60.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 79c | 56.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 55.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 73c | 54.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 26c | 52.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 26c | 51.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 24c | 50.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…b8dfbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 24c | 49.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 49.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 35c | 47.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 73c | 47.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 40c | 45.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 33c | 41.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 34c | 41.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 32c | 39.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 75c | 38.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd3…7656backed Yes | 36c | 37.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 37.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 32c | 37.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…f3f3backed No | 80c | 36.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd126…85c1backed No | 74c | 35.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 29c | 35.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 64c | 34.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 71c | 32.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 29.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 74c | 29.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 67c | 29.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…5eafbacked Yes | 36c | 28.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.