Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8553c4c3c62ea7985555a190c77e6829f35d6c27266910b767881aabd23b3aa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,373$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.28 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 7c | 543.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 9c | 469.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 15c | 433.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 21c | 289.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 283.8$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 79c | 280.68$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 72c | 277.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 266.52$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed No | 30c | 257.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 58c | 252.8$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.87 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 41c | 247.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.85 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 64c | 240.26$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 70c | 222.27$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 36c | 220.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 26c | 218.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 197.93$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 21c | 183.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 77c | 173.36$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a5…e23cbacked Yes | 60c | 161.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 57c | 158.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 38c | 154.65$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 150.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 67c | 147.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 11c | 141.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 57c | 140.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 135.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 131.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 53c | 127.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 49c | 127.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.27 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 119.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 61c | 119.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 112.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 51c | 106.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 104.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 50c | 103.71$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 39c | 103.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 57c | 99.9$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 98.66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 44c | 95.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 77c | 94.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 51c | 94.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 28c | 93.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6652…0fc2backed Yes | 42c | 90.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…3b1abacked No | 57c | 88.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 81.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 44c | 81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 38c | 79.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…ea98backed Yes | 46c | 74.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 74.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 54c | 73.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…53c7backed Yes | 47c | 71.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 54c | 71.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 70.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 61c | 69.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 53c | 67.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 17c | 66.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 66.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 55c | 65.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…760cbacked Yes | 48c | 59.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ad…8d47backed Yes | 56c | 57.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 63c | 57.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…6987backed Yes | 52c | 56.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 56c | 54.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…b5b2backed Yes | 49c | 51.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 56c | 50.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 49.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 53c | 48.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 50c | 48.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 50c | 47.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd342…1ad9backed Yes | 53c | 46.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0216…d434backed No | 24c | 46.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 52c | 45.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 76c | 45.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 44c | 44.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed No | 55c | 44.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 42.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 38.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 46c | 38.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 66c | 38.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c7…6dc4backed Yes | 50c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b7…dc81backed Yes | 49c | 37.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 35.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 37c | 35.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 34.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…e225backed Yes | 49c | 33.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 51c | 32.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.