Premier League · resolved market
Portsmouth FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed0b6cacc893cb56508d63d9822655df3c3bdbe5a3323f81ea833dce164482ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,348 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 58c | 2,692$1,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.43 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 42c | 1,738$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.95 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 41c | 725.66$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.16 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 42c | 479.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.54 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 428.9$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.31 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Under | 60c | 291.67$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…13b5backed Under | 52c | 234.37$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Over | 48c | 232.08$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 21c | 203.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 40c | 114.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 99.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 19c | 96.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 129 | 68.2%88 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 42c | 51.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 59c | 47.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 60c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…d3edbacked Over | 42c | 36.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 42c | 33.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b00…5b4cbacked Under | 59c | 31.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fc…3ecabacked Over | 43c | 30.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 35c | 30.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…1e73backed Under | 59c | 29.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5347…cd27backed Over | 42c | 29.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 42c | 29.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb954…14fdbacked Under | 59c | 27.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…dd44backed Under | 60c | 26.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 40c | 26.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 59c | 26.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portsmouth FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5this page
- Portsmouth FC vs. Swansea City AFC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Portsmouth FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Portsmouth FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Portsmouth FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Portsmouth FC (-1.5)Swansea City AFC won
- Spread: Swansea City AFC (-1.5)Portsmouth FC won
- Spread: Swansea City AFC (-2.5)Portsmouth FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.